Poker Edge - Pocket Pairs be His Downfall

I’m going to share with you one situation I identify as a positive expectation in many lower stake poker games. I’ll explain why it works, how I do the math, and how I play it.

First, what is a positive expectation? (If you’re sure you understand this, skip the paragraph). If something has a positive expectation, it basically means that if you employ the tactic, you have an edge. For example, say you have pocket aces and someone is willing to call all-in no matter what. While you won’t win every time, you will win far more frequently than the other person. Your expectation is positive.

Now, what is this situation I’m going to disclose? It begins with the fact that many people at the lower stakes are unwilling to fold aces, kings, queen, or jacks; and, not only that, but they will do nearly anything to play the hand. Because they do not want everyone to fold to them (who doesn’t hate getting aces, only to have no one to go up against?), they are willing to let you play for cheap. So, while your J8o has terrible chances against pocket aces, you’re only putting in the little blind. What you are doing is paying a big blind for a chance to win the other person’s entire stack.

Let me repeat myself. You are paying a big blind (or whatever meager amount they are charging you) for a chance to win their entire stack! Now, you may be scratching your head: “what do you mean?” Well, at the lower stakes, most people are unwilling to throw away a high pocket pair, especially aces. So if you hit something on the flop that overtakes the pocket aces, you’re gold. Even if you have to wait until the turn or river, the other player often won’t bet hard into you for fear of having you fold against their “monster.”

Let’s do the math. Say it takes you 30 times calling this guy to get something decent on the flop. You hit your winner, and he is going to pay out his entire stack, say 100 big blinds. So you pay 30 big blinds, and you win 100 big blinds. Or, you profit by 70 big blinds. I haven’t done all of the math, mostly because the players at the lower levels typically give me enough change to be somewhat sloppy, but I’m pretty sure this is a positive edge.

I like playing against tight scared (non-aggressive) players. I have a good idea of what they hold and they aren’t going to make me pay to see cards. Plus, they are willing to pay me once I have something. If you're one of those guys who will never fold jacks, queens, kings or aces, you may want to watch out.

Anyway, there are plenty of ways to increase your odds at the poker tables. This is one, but there are many more.

Cheers!