Continued...Down day. Lessons learned.

(this is a continuation of the day started in the previous post...)

8:04 I wouldn’t mind taking another AAPL short on a decent pullback.

8:07 not a terrible exit on AAPL. I still probably could’ve gotten my original limit order. But not terrible.

8:10 I noticed a triangle on AAPL earlier. Reminds me of one I saw on the SPY last week, or so. I want to figure out a way to do a backtest on triangles…

8:22 I should’ve taken that run back up to ~672. Reading some books I got yesterday. Hmmm. Don’t FIZZ out just yet!

8:37 Entered another short. May be a little early. Not looking for a huge gain, unless things get really weak. Seems like AAPL strengthened a bit. Which isn’t good, but I’m in at the pop.

8:40 if you need certainty, you don’t want to be a speculator.

8:45 Argh. AAPL just doesn’t want to give it back that fast. Come on. Not asking for much…now we’re getting volume on the up thrusts. Guess you can’t pick tops and bottoms. Wish I had more capital to play these swings. Someday!

8:56 I’m getting thrusted into the ground. If it weren’t for earlier profits I’d been feeling way more pain. Looking for releases. Gotta remember, AAPL is a strong puppy.

9:17 put on a quick counter short for a scalp. Made some. I’ll probably scalp a little more. Hoping this breaks down, but not sure.

9:21 they’ve got us shorts under pressure. Again, account capital not great enough to take on a solid counter-trend position. But I’ve been down more than this in the morning. Hoping this is to appease the longs, get them to buy into it and then dump a little more. We’ll see…

9:26 crazed longs. I’m worried we’re seeing an upthrust.

9:31 could get a bit of a retracement in here. Enough? Or just more fodder?

9:33 I’m reading through some Niederhoffer and Stock Almanac. Theme? Self-reliance, and statistics.

9:47 was doing well. TICK came and smacked me in the face. We’ll see if this mini downtrend can continue…

9:50 setting up the database to do some intraday analysis on AAPL. I need better stats on this behemoth.

9:53 setting up for a double toppish sort of thing???

9:57 need to focus on small aspect. As profit comes in, I can expand.

10:08 Huge downticks. AAPL held, but it’s crumbling a bit. Updating all my intraday data…

10:19 Closer. Still a little till b/e. Then to profit? Got my intraday data updated. Now to look into AAPL  data.

10:28 Needs to drop about a dollar before I get my ideal fill. Not sure how it’ll go. Watching…

10:40 made a slight mistake on a backtest that gave an amazing number. Always doubt the extremely amazing, at least give it a second, third, fourth run…

10:43 Seems there’s a slight tendency (55%) of further downward movement after a movement 3 times the standard deviation from the norm downward on AAPL. (this only goes back to 7/17/2012)

10:51 seems like there’s a slight chance (53%) chance of negative movement after a positive 3 stdev move. Not the kind of stats you really want to base anything off of…especially without associated profit numbers. Guess you want profit numbers no matter what the likelihood of a downturn are. Haha. Unless its 100%.

11:15 Doing some analysis. But this market is really grinding me down.

11:25 Feel as though my odds are getting lower and lower as the day rolls on.

12:24 Days like this just kill me.

12:45 Closed out for a loss. Down on the day. Bummer, but I don’t want to hold overnight.

Terribly day on trust in my stats. Bad day on execution. I managed to limit downside. Loss about a dollar on AAPL. Not terrible, but I should’ve been positive! Especially seeing the SPY and SLB gap. Lots to learn. Lots to do. Working on a better backtesting system right now. I’ll be up at 6 tomorrow.