08-29-2012 (Late post)

6:37 Gap data kept me out of a few bad trades. Didn’t put me in any good ones. Money saved is good. Glad I got out of AAPL yesterday, I’d be in a world of hurt today. Also, had to move some of my stuff…my computer setup isn’t exactly how I like it. Going to be fiddling with that a little this morning. Watching AAPL, looking at technical data across the board, trying to find good entries, and reconfiguring my computer setup.

6:40 I think I’m going to expand my gap data to cover every symbol I have in my database. Will give me extra edge across the board.

12:05 Haven’t had internet on this computer most of the day. Just covered my GOOG short a second too early. Fuck. Lowered my morning loss marginally…

Okay. Going to test AAPL and AMZN. If I only faded their gaps, based on best stats, what kind of return would I receive? How to go about calculating it?

I want max return (including overshot). Return given just closing at end of day.

Which day is preferred? 

(analysis is removed because I can't just give away my work!!! :D)

Next day:

Something interesting happened this morning. AAPL(0,0,2010) occurred (date arbitrary). And it was a terrible failure for fades.  Of course, it says there’s a 50% chance of filling, but what is the chance for profit? I’m guessing lower…

I’m thinking I may be able to profit better off of ES for day trades. But keep analyzing AAPL, OXY, AMZN openings…now for some AMZN try prev_day = 0, type = 0 (~), 1,4 and prev_day = 1, type = 1,2

12:05 Just took a quick trade long in AAPL. Good job. I’m normally terrible at long trades (I grew up in 2008, shorting everything). A nice W setup with some increasing volume. I sold maybe a little too early, but my entry wasn’t the best, so my odds felt skewed. Nice little positive though.

12:48 Glad I didn’t stick around in it. Wasn’t planning on doing it, because the day has been down, but grabbing for extra chips can be tempting. Putting together my overall strategy, the gap one, which will be sparsely traded (only so many days it will work on), and working on more strategies to fill up the time and increase the account size.

So now, let’s combine all this data together, look at drawdowns and whether a full position should be added right at the open, or if some drawdown should be expected, etc. Also look for overlaps, and which position should be taken or if it should be mixed (half and half, or some other mixture…etc).